A report from the Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress (HVPP) was recently conducted for the Sullivan County Industrial Development Agency (IDA) to assess the county after recent investments in Resorts World Catskills, and other resorts like YO1 Luxury Nature Cure, Kartrite Hotel and Indoor Waterpark, and other new attractions that now call Sullivan County home.

HVPP were given 90 days to collect their data by the IDA. “This was done as if we were a business seeking to expand to the county,” said Jonathan Drapkin, President, and CEO of Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.

The report showed that the county is aging out, the metrics indicate the most significant population in the county are in the 50-64 age range. While the younger generation [age 15-39 population] has not grown to replace the aging population once they retired.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 3,853,472 births in the United States in 2017, which is down two percent from 2016 and the lowest number in 30 years.

“Generally speaking, you would want to see the larger base of the younger generation, it's just not happening,” said HVPP's Junior Research Planner Eric Pierson.

“It's a very serious issue for a lot of projects and programs and utility workforce from an economic point of view,” said Drapkin.

The baseline for the report was based on data found in 2016 because, according to Drapkin, 2016 had the most data available. Also, Drapkin added, “In December 2015 the casino was granted its license so theoretically if there were to be beginning of a change of attitude it would occur at that time.”

The findings also show that in the year 2000 the county had 73,966 residents and peaked in 2010 with 77,547 people. In 2016, the trend of people living in the county has gone down to 75,818, and according to Pierson, the direction seems to be continuing on a downward slope.

On the workforce side since 2000 there has been a 10 percent decrease in the 15 and younger age group while the 16-65 [year old] workforce has seen an increase of three percent, and the 65 years and older workforce has seen a the 20 percent growth.

In terms of county demographics, there has been an increase in the Hispanic and Latino population jumping from nine to 15 percent from 2000 to 2016.

The median household income has not seen a significant increase in wages since 2000, when it was $51,928. In 2016, it has only raised slightly to $52,027.

With information collected from the Sullivan County Clerk's office, the HVPP also looked at the real estate activity. There was a slow recovery from the market crash of 2008, but the current trend has plateaued, and the numbers are the same as it was in 1997 in deeds that have been filed.

“Since the announcement of the casino, the real estate is good and better than it has been but it has never gotten back to where it was before the market crash,” said Drapkin.

Where are people moving to and from?

The metrics that HVPP collected showed that most of the people moving to the county have headed to the towns of Thompson, Mamakating, Liberty, and Fallsburg.

The metrics show a large cluster comes from Orange County and Manhattan. But the most significant group comes from Brooklyn in the areas of Borough Park and Williamsburg.

Housing in the county is also aging with 22 percent of the homes being built in 1939 and earlier. Homes that were built between 1980-1989 and 2000-2009 are each 14 percent. The lowest percentage, one percent, are homes that were built in 2010 and later.

HVPP was founded in 1965 and is a not-for-profit policy, planning, advocacy, and research organization. The mission of HVPP is to promote regional, balanced and sustainable solutions that enhance the growth and vitality of the Hudson Valley.

In doing so, HVPP brings together business, nonprofit, academic and government leaders from across nine counties to collaborate on regional approaches.

HVPP looks at options for affordable workforce housing, public sharing, local government efficiency, land use policy, transportation, and other infrastructure issues that most impact the growth of the region.

What can be done?

Here are some recommendations that HVPP provided to the IDA...

• Conduct a new second homeowner survey with the last one being done in 1997 and 2008.

• Find out more information from the outside buyers.

• Create a “Housing Coordinator” position in the county which could be with the Divison of Planning or the Chamber of Commerce that can deal with the high vacancy, workforce and affordable house, code enforcement, homeless population and coordinate with the Land Bank.

• Bolster the Wheels to Work program, providing affordable car “leases” to eligible low-income residents.

• Create a Transit hub at the Shortline Bus terminal in Monticello. The hub would be a centralized location to make connections between types of transportation like Shortline, the county's transit loop, taxis and ride-hailing apps like Uber and Lyft.

• Create County “Connectivity Taskforce” which will include providers, state and local representatives and residents.

• Host business competition where prospective entrepreneurs pitch an idea to a panel. The panel will choose a promising approach and assigns a business mentor where winners will receive loan and seed money to start their business and fill vacant and underutilized commercial space.