Get ready for a mild winter? 

Even though we had a small amount of snowfall on Tuesday, the Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a mild winter for the Northeast region, with warmer-than-average temperatures and less precipitation. 

If you grew up in the Northeast, you know that we would typically experience a white Christmas. It seems it’s been a while since we’ve had a very snowy December. 

“Overall, there are fewer colder winters than there were 50 years ago, and it’s rarer to get prolonged cold; we still see extreme cold, and even very cold months, yet less and less are we seeing—and forecasting—multiple consecutive weeks of temperatures staying solidly 5 to 6 degrees below average,” the Almanac writes. 

This year, according to the Farmer’s Almanac the snowiest periods will be in mid-November, early and mid-December, and early February.

How does the Farmer’s Almanac predict weather? They use solar science, climatology and meteorology.

How accurate is it? While it’s nearly impossible to predict the weather with total accuracy, they say their results are often very close to their traditional claim of 80 percent. That’s pretty high!

The weather predictions in the Almanac (and any other forecast for that matter) compare temperature and precipitation levels to “normal.” Forecasts consider normal to be the 30-year average. 

Of course, “normal” has changed over the years. Every 10 years, the National Center for Environmental Information calculates a new set of normal temperatures for the U.S. based on updated 30-year averages. 

Climate change affects the Almanac’s predictions. The recalibrated data for the U.S. shows that warming is widespread, but not uniform. 

Can natural indicators like woolly bear caterpillars and corn husks predict the upcoming weather? The Almanac can’t confirm or deny it! 

Whether you like a snowy winter or a mild one, sometimes it’s all just up in the air.