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Kleiner's Korner

Betting on Golf

Matt Kleiner
Posted 6/23/23

When golf betting became available on the many gambling sites, I was very curious to see how it would shake out. I’ve always played for something on the course with my playing partners but …

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Kleiner's Korner

Betting on Golf

Posted

When golf betting became available on the many gambling sites, I was very curious to see how it would shake out. I’ve always played for something on the course with my playing partners but betting on tour players is a whole new thing.

There are two types of ways to bet. You can bet on a particular player or indulge in a weekly fantasy team. Most sites like DraftKings or Fanduel give out odds at the beginning of the week on the players playing that week. 

This week’s PGA tour event is the Travelers Championship. Scottie Scheffler, the number 1 ranked player in the world, is the betting favorite +650. That means if you bet $100 on Scheffler and he wins you win $650. A $10 bet gets you $65. You can also bet that he finishes in the top 10 or 20 or 40. The odds will also reflect the position you bet him on. If you bet Scheffler to finish in the top 10 his odds would decrease to -120. After betting for about a year I’ve realized that betting to win is not a bet you will profit on in the end. I’ve bet to win approximately 30 times and have collected 3 times. One of those I bet after the cut at reduced odds. Very difficult to profit betting to win.

My suggestion is if you are willing to bet say $10 a week, bet $6 on a top 40 for your player and $2 on a top 20 or 30 and $2 to win. A top 40 is basically betting your player makes the cut and beats 20 of the remaining 60 players in the field. Your bankroll will last a lot longer and maybe your player wins at a nice price. 

I like Patrick Cantlay this week to win. He plays well at this tournament and is usually in the top 20. I will say there is a 90% chance he will be in the top 30. He has been in the top 20 almost every year he has played in this event. 

I will bet $3 on a top 30 at -250 and $3 on a win at +1200 or 12 to 1. I am risking $10.50 total with a possibility of winning $39. The most likely scenario is he finishes in the top 20 and I break even. To me betting on the top 30 is like getting a free win bet. We shall see. 

Fantasy golf is a whole different contest. You pick 6 players each week who are issued out a value. A salary cap of $50,000 is what you can spend. I usually get in the $5 entry game, and this week my team consists of Cantlay at $10,200, Hovland at $9,900, Tom Kim at $8,100, Min Woo Lee at $7,600, Justin Suh at $7,200 and Sam Bennett at $7,000. 

There are 83,000 people who put teams in this week. Crazy. The winning team gets $50,000 and they pay 20,000 spots. If you finish in the top 25% you win your entry back and then some. Very entertaining way to bet on golf.  As they always say, don’t bet what you can’t afford. Enjoy.

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